Andrey Chepelev vs Andrea Bacaloni Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Second Serve Performance: Bacaloni wins 38.93% of points on their second serve recently, while Chepelev secures 42.1%. Does this suggest an edge for Chepelev in second serve rallies? Yes, slightly.
• Return Game Strength: Both players have identical recent performance on opponents' second serve returns at 47.51%. However, Bacaloni outperforms Chepelev on first serve returns, with Bacaloni at 37.02% versus Chepelev's 31.68%. Could this determine who has the upper hand in return games? Possibly.
• Pressure Situations: When it comes to saving breakpoints, Chepelev has a slightly better recent percentage, saving 50.14%, compared to Bacaloni's 43%. This could be key in clutch moments during the match.
• Match Win Rates: Over the past year, both players have similar match-winning percentages, with Bacaloni at 57.78% and Chepelev at 57.47%. How much weight will this carry in the prediction? Perhaps not much by itself.
• Surface Preferences: Bacaloni's best career surface is clay, with a win rate of 56%, whereas Chepelev also excels on clay with a more impressive 61% win rate. On hard surfaces, Bacaloni’s performance drops to 45%, while Chepelev struggles on indoor hard courts with a 29% win rate.
• Previous Meetings: Bacaloni leads the direct head-to-head with one win, having secured a victory in their only meeting on clay. Bacaloni also won the only deciding set they played.
• Adequate Competition: Recent opponents for Bacaloni have had an average rank of 144.07, suggesting Bacaloni might have faced tougher competition compared to Chepelev, whose average opponent rank was 440.09.
• Deciding Sets and Tie-breaks: Bacaloni has proven formidable in deciding sets, winning 75% versus Chepelev's 57% over the last year. Bacaloni also won their only tiebreak against Chepelev.
• Break Point Conversion: Bacaloni converts break points at a higher rate of 46.91%, compared to Chepelev at 32.67%, an important factor for game-changing moments.

Editorial Prediction (August 20, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match between Bacaloni and Chepelev promises to be an intense competition, with both players exhibiting comparable overall win rates over the past year. However, several factors lean slightly in Bacaloni's favor.

Bacaloni's superior performance in return games, particularly on first serve returns, coupled with higher break point conversion rates, grants him a tactical advantage. Additionally, Bacaloni's historical success in deciding sets and under pressure situations further strengthens his position.

Given their identical strength on clay and Bacaloni's previous victory over Chepelev on this surface, these elements collectively suggest that Bacaloni is likely to come out on top in this matchup.